The Monty Hall Problem

The Monty Hall Problem, as originally written, goes like this:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Try it...

Door 1
Door 2
Door 3

So, you're more likely to win if you switch?

It seems odd - surely the odds don't change? Yet, if you stick you'll only win a third of the games you play on average. Change your mind, and you'll win twice as many games.

It's important to realize that at the start, you've a 1-in-3 chance of picking the car. Or to put it another way, you've a 2-in-3 chance of picking a goat.

Now if you do start out picking a goat, then there's only one remaining goat I can reveal to you - this means that 2-out-3 times, I've got no choice in which box to reveal to you. This means, 2-out-of-3 times, you are better off switching because the only box I can leave unopened for you contains the car.

Still don't believe it?

This site records all the games played. So far, we've logged 481 games:

Read more...

Comments

If want to comment on this, see my related blog post

Credits